Commissioned by UKIP donor Alan Bown from the Survation polling company, the polls show support for the party is based on its policies and not just a protest vote.
Mr Bown said: 'These interesting polls have been interpreted by many as showing that a vote for UKIP was not only a wasted vote, but also a counterproductive one as it could put Miliband into No.10, supposedly against the wishes of most UKIP voters.
"This has since become the standard media narrative where UKIP is discussed and a regular Conservative Party attack line.
"I did not share this view and was sure that UKIP’s increasing popularity and support meant that the picture was much more complicated.
"I believed that we were taking significant numbers of votes from Labour and the Liberal Democrats as well as the Tories. I also believed that UKIP’s popularity and recent phenomenal growth meant that in our strongest areas our support was likely to be significantly higher than Ashcroft’s figure of 10-14% nationally would suggest.
"In addition I felt that the fact that UKIP has generally in the past not been prompted in many opinion polls may have further underestimated our support.
"As can be seen from the results, the effect of UKIP has dramatically reshaped the political landscape, but in ways far more complex and interesting than the simplistic narrative of UKIP “splitting the Tory vote” would suggest.
"Today sees the publication of the latest four in this ongoing series of polls: two marginal seats in Crewe & Nantwich and Great Yarmouth, plus two ‘safe’ Conservative seats in Folkestone & Hythe and Bognor Regis & Littlehampton.
"In three of these four seats, UKIP is now in second place.
"Some of the aggregate results of the seven polls (3,639 interviews) published so far are shown in the following charts.
"Taken together, these dispel some of the myths about UKIP as a party."
Results
1 Published on data from all published constituency polls except Great Grimsby and Dudley North.
2 Published on data from all published constituency polls except Great Grimsby and Dudley North.
2 Published on data from all published constituency polls except Great Grimsby and Dudley North.3 Published on data from all published constituency polls
In conclusion
UKIP attracts voters from all parties, based on support for their policies, not just a “protest vote” - they cannot simply be “won back” to the Conservatives. Even those 30% who did vote Conservative in 2010 may now have abandoned the party for good.
UKIP is becoming the official opposition to Labour in parts of the Midlands and North and a real opposition to the Conservatives in many parts of the South. Voting UKIP offers the best chance to defeat incumbents in these places.
UKIP stand poised for a major breakthrough in 2015, within reach of victory in many seats across the country.Alan Bown is a UKIP donor and commissioned Survation privately to conduct this research. Data are based on 3639 telephone interviews conducted by Survation between 18 October and 9 December in Crewe & Nantwich, Great Grimsby, Bognor Regis & Littlehampton, Great Yarmouth, Folkstone & Hythe, South Thanet and Dudley North. Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
